Goals & planning
FIRE calculator
FIRE number = annual spending ÷ safe withdrawal rate (25× at 4%). Compound your current assets plus monthly saving toward it and the timeline falls out.
Estimated time to FIRE
14y 3m
≈ 171 months at a steady 5%
FIRE number
3,000,000
Progress today
16.7%
Estimated FIRE age
46.2 yrs
Target and timeline at other withdrawal rates
| SWR | FIRE number | Time needed |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | 4,000,000 | 17y 11m |
| 3.5% | 3,428,571.43 | 15y 11m |
| 4% | 3,000,000 | 14y 3m |
| 4.5% | 2,666,666.67 | 12y 10m |
| 5% | 2,400,000 | 11y 7m |
Projected assets year by year
| Year | Assets | vs target |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 623,811.79 | 20.8% |
| 2 | 753,958.03 | 25.1% |
| 3 | 890,762.80 | 29.7% |
| 4 | 1,034,566.76 | 34.5% |
| 5 | 1,185,728.00 | 39.5% |
| 6 | 1,344,622.94 | 44.8% |
| 7 | 1,511,647.25 | 50.4% |
| 8 | 1,687,216.83 | 56.2% |
| 9 | 1,871,768.89 | 62.4% |
| 10 | 2,065,762.98 | 68.9% |
| 11 | 2,269,682.18 | 75.7% |
| 12 | 2,484,034.28 | 82.8% |
| 13 | 2,709,353.03 | 90.3% |
| 14 | 2,946,199.51 | 98.2% |
| 15 | 3,195,163.52 | 106.5% |
| 16 | 3,456,864.99 | 115.2% |
The 4% rule and where it comes from
FIRE number = annual spending ÷ safe withdrawal rate. The 4% figure comes from the Trinity study's backtests on US stock/bond mixes: a 4% initial withdrawal, inflation-adjusted, rarely exhausted a portfolio within 30 years. More conservative rates mean bigger targets — 3.5% ≈ 28.6× spending, 3% ≈ 33.3×.
It is history, not physics: for very long retirements, non-US markets or higher inflation it can read optimistic. The comparison rows show targets and timelines at 3–5% so you can pick your own conservatism.
How the timeline is computed
Monthly compounding: assets after t months = assets×(1+r)ᵗ + monthly×[(1+r)ᵗ−1]/r, with r = annual÷12. The answer is the first t reaching the target.
Enter a real return (nominal minus inflation) — then both the target and the projection are in today's money, which keeps the conclusion honest. E.g. 8% nominal and 3% inflation → enter about 5%.
Frequently asked
What counts as annual spending?
What you expect to spend per year once free — not today's income. Start from current spending, then adjust for post-work changes (paid-off mortgage, healthcare, travel).
Why is the timeline so rate-sensitive?
Time sits inside the exponent: 1–2 points of return compound into a large gap over a decade-plus. That uncertainty is inherent — read the SWR table alongside your most pessimistic rate.
What does monthly saving of 0 model?
Coast FIRE: no new contributions, pure compounding on current assets. If the balance can never reach the target, the tool says so plainly.
Which withdrawal rate should I pick?
4% is the classic default; for horizons beyond 30 years, sequence-risk worries or rich valuations, 3–3.5% is sturdier. There is no right answer — pick the row you can sleep on.
Constant monthly compounding; taxes, fees, sequence risk and spending changes excluded. The 4% rule derives from US-market backtests and guarantees nothing. Estimates only, not investment advice.